
Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has secretly prepared an escape plan to Moscow with fewer than 24 close allies, signaling unprecedented regime vulnerability as nationwide protests intensify across the Islamic Republic.
Story Snapshot
- Khamenei developed “Plan B” to flee Tehran for Moscow with inner circle including son Mojtaba
- Escape routes mapped and $95 billion in assets secured through entities like Setad foundation
- Plan mirrors Assad’s December 2024 flight to Russia following Syrian regime collapse
- Intelligence sources report growing defection risks among security forces with families abroad
- Protests sparked by economic hardship now spreading to religious strongholds like Qom
A Dictator’s Desperation Takes Shape
Intelligence reports reveal Khamenei’s Moscow escape plan emerged from recent weeks of careful logistics planning, including predetermined routes and asset transfers. The scheme allows the Supreme Leader to evacuate with approximately 20 trusted aides and family members should Iranian security forces defect or prove unable to suppress escalating demonstrations. This contingency planning represents an extraordinary admission of regime fragility from a leader who has controlled Iran’s theocratic state since 1989.
Former Israeli intelligence officer Beni Sabti confirms Russia stands as Khamenei’s sole refuge option, citing the Supreme Leader’s admiration for Putin’s authoritarian model and their shared cultural antipathy toward Western democratic values. The escape plan specifically designates Moscow based on the successful precedent of Assad’s December 2024 evacuation when Syrian opposition forces overran Damascus.
Economic Warfare Fuels Revolutionary Fervor
Current protests stem from mounting economic hardships exacerbated by international sanctions and domestic mismanagement under clerical rule. Demonstrators across major Iranian cities face live ammunition and tear gas from security forces, yet protests continue spreading even to traditionally loyal religious centers like Qom. The regime’s violent response paradoxically weakens its position by alienating moderate supporters and highlighting its dependence on brutal suppression rather than popular legitimacy.
Khamenei’s $95 billion asset portfolio, accumulated through the Setad foundation since 2013, provides the financial foundation for his potential exile. These vast holdings, originally justified as religious endowments, now serve as a dictator’s escape fund while ordinary Iranians struggle with inflation and unemployment. The hypocrisy of clerical leaders hoarding wealth while preaching sacrifice resonates powerfully with protesters demanding regime change.
Security Forces Face Loyalty Crisis
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij militia, and regular police forces represent Khamenei’s final line of defense, yet their reliability wavers as key officials maintain family members abroad. Ali Larijani, National Security Council secretary, exemplifies this vulnerability with relatives living safely in Western nations while he enforces domestic repression. Such divided loyalties create hesitation when decisive action becomes necessary for regime survival.
Intelligence assessments suggest defection risks multiply when security personnel face choices between protecting a failing regime and ensuring their families’ safety abroad. The psychological strain on Khamenei, already weakened by age and the 2025 twelve-day conflict with Israel, compounds his paranoia about inner-circle betrayals. His retreat to underground bunkers during the Israeli strikes demonstrated the physical and mental toll of maintaining power through fear.
Moscow’s Authoritarian Sanctuary
Putin’s willingness to shelter fallen dictators transforms Russia into a premier destination for deposed tyrants seeking protection from justice. Assad’s successful transition from battlefield defeat to Moscow luxury establishes a template Khamenei studies closely for potential replication. This arrangement serves Putin’s strategic interests by demonstrating loyalty to allies while positioning Russia as the ultimate safe haven for authoritarian leaders.
The potential collapse of Iran’s Islamic Republic would devastate regional proxy networks including Hezbollah and Hamas, fundamentally reshaping Middle Eastern power dynamics. Without Iranian funding and weapons, these terrorist organizations lose their primary sponsor, creating opportunities for regional stability and democratic development. American interests clearly benefit when theocratic regimes face internal pressure rather than external intervention, validating the power of economic sanctions and popular resistance over military solutions.
Sources:
Ground News – Khamenei Prepared to Flee to Russia if Unrest Escalates
Ynet News – Iran Supreme Leader Plans Escape to Moscow
Jerusalem Post – Khamenei Escape Plan to Russia
GB News – Iran Protests Supreme Leader Prepared Escape Moscow
EADaily – Ayatollah Khamenei Has Developed Escape Plan from Iran
Iran International – Khamenei Escape Plan Report










