Samsungs 14-Year Empire CRUMBLES: Apple Takes Crown

A person holding a smartphone displaying various mobile applications

Apple is poised to dethrone Samsung as the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer by unit shipments in 2025, ending Samsung’s 14-year reign and marking the most significant shift in mobile market leadership since the early days of the smartphone revolution.

Story Highlights

Apple projected to ship 243 million iPhones versus Samsung’s 235 million units in 2025
First time since 2011 that Apple will lead global smartphone shipments by volume
358 million second-hand iPhones changed owners since 2023, creating massive upgrade demand
COVID-era phone buyers now entering natural replacement cycle after 4-5 years
Apple expected to maintain leadership position through 2029

The Great Smartphone Reversal

Samsung has dominated smartphone shipments since 2011 through aggressive expansion in budget and mid-range segments worldwide. Apple consistently maintained higher profits and premium market control but shipped fewer total units due to its focus on higher-priced devices. This fundamental market structure remained unchanged for over a decade until 2025’s dramatic reversal.

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Counterpoint Research projects Apple will capture 19.4% of global market share compared to Samsung’s 18.7% in 2025. The iPhone 17 series launch, featuring the new iPhone Air model replacing the Plus variant, contributed significantly to this momentum shift. Apple’s shipments are expected to grow 10% year-over-year while the overall smartphone market expands 3.3%.

COVID Upgrade Cycle Creates Perfect Storm

The primary driver behind Apple’s ascendancy stems from pandemic-era purchasing patterns. Between 2020 and 2021, consumers made substantial smartphone purchases during lockdowns, creating a massive installed base of aging devices. Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, explains that consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.

An estimated 358 million second-hand iPhones changed hands between 2023 and mid-2025, demonstrating the scale of upgrade demand building in the market. This cohort represents a substantial replacement cycle inflection point that forms the backbone of sustained iPhone growth projections. The timing creates unprecedented demand precisely when Apple’s product lineup offers compelling upgrade incentives.

Samsung Faces Multi-Front Competitive Pressure

Samsung confronts mounting pressure from Chinese smartphone brands in mid-range and budget segments, potentially limiting its ability to reclaim the top position. Companies like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have aggressively captured market share in price-sensitive regions where Samsung historically built volume leadership. This competitive squeeze forces Samsung to defend multiple market segments simultaneously.

Apple projected to beat Samsung in smartphone shipments for first time since 2011 https://t.co/jmyDEr92v9

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Despite facing displacement, Samsung maintains operational advantages through diversified supplier networks in Vietnam and India. The company’s staggered regional launch strategy captured early momentum in Asia and Europe during 2025, briefly reclaiming the top spot in Q1 2025 with 67 million units versus Apple’s 49 million. However, quarterly volatility cannot offset annual trend momentum favoring Apple.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds Accelerate Apple’s Rise

A trade truce between the United States and China reduced tariff pressures on Apple’s supply chain, stabilizing manufacturing costs and reducing operational uncertainty. Currency appreciation and stronger global economic outlook improved consumer confidence in emerging markets, expanding Apple’s addressable customer base beyond traditional premium segments.

Apple’s planned product roadmap through 2029 includes the budget-friendly iPhone 17e launch in 2026, its first foldable iPhone, major Siri improvements, and significant design revamps in 2027. These innovations position Apple to sustain market leadership while expanding into price-sensitive segments where Samsung previously held advantages. The strategic expansion represents Apple’s recognition that volume leadership requires broader market participation.